Watching OKC play throughout the playoffs, I was surprised at how difficult it is for a top team to play with two true big men at the same time—like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, for example. Not long ago, the project that most committed to playing with two bigs was Minnesota with the Towns-Gobert duo. That experiment ended with a trade that sent Randle to Minneapolis and the Frenchman to the Big Apple. From there, I started to wonder how NBA players’ shot selection had evolved over the years. What was once considered odd at the beginning of the century—a big man shooting threes—is now a skill that most tall players possess.
With that idea in mind, I thought about how to examine these changes in players’ shot profiles. The best way seemed to be through the NBA’s shot breakdown. I started by counting each player’s total number of shots per season and categorized them using the league’s five distance buckets: Back Court Shot, Less Than 8 ft, 8–16 ft, 16–24 ft, and 24+ ft. To keep the analysis clean, I filtered for player-season combinations with at least 300 shots, then analyzed how the shots were distributed across the zones. From that, I calculated the standard deviations between a player’s yearly distributions and compared them for players with at least five seasons.
Using this, along with heatmaps, let’s analyze the five current players who have most changed their shot selection over the past 10 years.
Top 5: Al Horford
Horford grabs the fifth spot here—probably not higher only because the analysis covers the last ten years and not the last fifteen. In his first nine seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, he was a purely interior player. Across his first seven years, he attempted only 29 threes. However, in his final year with the Hawks, he began using the outside shot more frequently—especially mid-range and top-of-the-key threes, as seen in the first heatmap.
After signing with Boston, he became a reliable shooter, averaging 43% from deep in 2018–19. That performance earned him a major deal from Philadelphia: $109M over four years. However, he didn’t quite fit there, shooting just 35% from three in his first year, and was traded to OKC to relieve the Sixers’ cap space. Boston brought him back, and the results have been stellar. He has gradually moved away from mid-range shots and fully embraced the three-ball, especially from the top, shooting 45% from deep in 2022–23.
Top 4: P.J. Tucker
Tucker is a classic example of how age and experience change your role in the NBA. Ten years ago, he was in Phoenix, the starting small forward on a struggling Suns team that finished 23–59. His calling card was defense, but offensively he took shots from all over the floor—though he always had a fondness for corner threes, which became his trademark shot.
In 2017–18, Daryl Morey brought him to the Rockets, a powerhouse coached by Mike D’Antoni. During his time in Houston, Tucker began phasing out mid-range jumpers and ramped up his top-of-the-key three-point attempts, which he had barely used earlier in his career. In recent seasons, his role has shifted even more toward a 3&D archetype, focusing on corner threes and under-the-rim shots while avoiding the center of the court.
Top 3: Brook Lopez
Lopez’s transformation is similar to Horford’s—a big man turned sharpshooter. Over his first eight seasons with the Nets, he went just 3-for-35 from three-point range, clearly not his area of comfort. But in 2016–17, that changed dramatically: from 14 threes attempted the year before to 387—more than five per game.
Once he joined the Bucks, the full transformation happened: he attempted more threes than twos over an entire regular season—a remarkable stat for a center. The short mid-range shots he relied on in Brooklyn were entirely replaced by long-range bombs, especially from the top of the arc. His shot chart in recent seasons still shows some close-range attempts due to his length, but otherwise, he lives beyond the arc, favoring the left side over the right.
Top 2: Isaiah Stewart
Despite being in the league for just five seasons, Stewart’s heatmap is fascinating. In his first two seasons, he barely attempted one three-pointer per game. But in 2022–23 and 2023–24, he averaged nearly four attempts per game—likely due to sharing the court with newly drafted Jalen Duren, who filled the role of pure center. That pushed Stewart into a more perimeter-oriented role.
What’s interesting is how he reverted to his original style this past season. The reason seems clear: moving from starting power forward to backup center behind Duren meant more interior play and fewer outside shots. It remains to be seen which version of Stewart we’ll see going forward, having already shown two distinct styles in a short span.
Top 1: Julius Randle
Randle’s case is perhaps the most curious of all. During his time with the Lakers, he frequently took mid-range shots but rarely attempted threes—averaging less than one attempt per game. That changed in 2018–19 with the Pelicans, when he began testing the waters from deep, though his percentages remained low until he arrived in New York.
In 2020–21, both his volume and accuracy improved dramatically. By 2022–23, he was averaging over eight attempts per game. In recent years, his mid-range game has all but disappeared in favor of a more perimeter-focused style. This shift has complemented his partnerships with interior players like Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson, and now Rudy Gobert in Minnesota.
Did you expect these results? Let us know in the comments which other player changes you were expecting to see. And as always, thanks so much for reading 🙂
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