Jimmy Butler, the Chef’s Waiter

Welcome to the NBA section at SospiAnalytics! In this first article, we’ll analyze Jimmy Butler’s arrival at the Golden State Warriors and the change this has brought to the team.

Summer and Start of the Season

The Golden State Warriors faced the season after a summer in which they bid farewell to one of their icons of the last decade: Klay Thompson. The shooter left the Bay to join the Dallas Mavericks of (then) Luka Doncic, which as recent finalists seemed a priori a more suitable destination to pursue a championship.In exchange, the Warriors incorporated several pieces to renovate their rotation: Buddy Hield was called upon to somehow replace Klay, adding another outside threat to accompany Stephen Curry, who was coming off a stellar performance at the Olympic Games.

On the other hand, they added De’Anthony Melton, who with his more defensive profile seemed a good fit for Stephen, and Kyle Anderson who came to give some rest to Draymond Green (you never know when he might get suspended).

With these changes, the Warriors started the season on fire: specifically Buddy Hield’s shooting, who had a scandalous first ten games. The first two games were absolute thrashings of Portland (by 36 points) and Utah (by 41), who were presumed to be simple rivals, but they navigated the initial stretch with very meritorious victories against championship contenders like Boston, Oklahoma, and Dallas, reaching a 12-3 record that left them as the third-best team in the league.

In the following table, we can see the performance of the Californians’ new outside duo, with Buddy Hield following Curry’s percentage trail, but more limited to a catch-and-shoot role (91% of his three-pointers are assisted).

To put these numbers in context, Stephen Curry himself averaged in his unanimous MVP season (2015-16) 49.5% in field goals and 44.5% in three-pointers, very close to those at the start of this year.

The Journey Through the Desert

After that overwhelming start where they were the second favorite to win the West (behind Oklahoma), there was a general collapse (3-12 in the next 15 games) that finally led to stabilization around 50% wins.

The team got worse both offensively and defensively. In the following table, we can see how they went from being one of the most accurate teams at the rim to a team at the bottom of the league, worsening in practically all metrics (except for free throws, where they had no room to get any worse).

The defense also didn’t maintain the level of the start of the season in traditional metrics (blocks, steals, and deflections), so overall the team went from being among the top 5 to the bottom 5.

At this point, and with Stephen Curry counting the days to his 37th birthday, Golden State’s front office scoured the market in search of anything that might slightly smell like an All-Star. Durant was rumored (and declined), they asked LeBron (!), and they also circled players of lesser caliber like Lavine or Vucevic. Finally, Jimmy Butler arrived, who was having an irregular season and was in rebellion to leave the Miami Heat. The condition for signing with the Warriors was a renewal of 110 million over the next 2 years (a real blow at 35 years old).

In summary, a desperate measure in the face of the stagnation of a team that didn’t seem to be going anywhere. From the offices of Sospianalytics, we have recovered the reactions to the trade, and none seemed to agree with what the Warriors had done.

The Change: Jimmy for Wiggins (and Schröder)

Specifically, the Warriors gave up Andrew Wiggins, a vital piece in their 2022 championship, Dennis Schröder who had arrived midseason and never fully adapted to the team, and bench pieces like Kyle Anderson and Lindy Waters III. All this garnished with this year’s protected first-round pick.

At first glance, what they were looking for in the market was a player who would relieve the offensive load from Stephen Curry’s shoulders. With that in mind, it seems clear that they gained with the change: Butler led his team to the NBA finals in 2020 and 2023 (lost to Lakers and Nuggets), while Wiggins is a good offensive and defensive player, but has never become a threat of Jimmy’s caliber.

The player profile is very different: Butler constantly seeks the rim, getting to the free-throw line a lot, but has never been a specialist from the arc. Wiggins, although he has a powerful physique that gives him an advantage near the basket, often settles for a 3-point shot that in recent years hasn’t had the efficiency of 2022.

Jimmy’s Warriors

With these changes to the team, the Warriors arrived in Chicago and secured a convincing victory with 25 points from their new star and 34 from a Stephen Curry with renewed energy. Game after game of this newly formed duo, it began to be seen that the team’s sensations were very different. Jimmy Butler has always stood out for being a born competitor, and he soon infected his new team, which since then has achieved a 12-1 record.

Taking a look at the statistics we’ve seen before, we notice a general uptick, but with several important differences. Jimmy Butler’s Warriors are not as efficient in the three-pointer as at the beginning of the season, but their new star offers them a new scoring avenue: the free throw. Since his arrival, they have gone from being the worst team from the line to being second in the rankings, largely thanks to the 6.9 attempts he averages (11th in the league), with a great 83% accuracy.

Butler’s presence has also been noticed on defense, returning to numbers similar to those they recorded in the first games.

Stephen, Revitalized

Butler’s arrival has freed the offensive load from Stephen Curry’s shoulders, who at times seemed overwhelmed by the lack of help from his teammates. Jonathan Kuminga’s injury, out for the last two months, left him even more alone and without the freshness of legs from the years when he was MVP.

With Butler on the team, their coach, Steve Kerr, can manage the minutes of his two stars so that one of them is always on the court. The general pattern is as follows: they both start, and before the middle of the first quarter, Butler sits while Curry continues on the court. Thus, when Curry rests toward the end of the first quarter, Butler returns to the court to always have an offensive reference.

At the beginning of the second quarter, Butler leads the substitutes and sits again when Curry returns to the court. After a break, he returns so that both finish the first half together. A similar pattern is followed in the second half. In the following graph, we see how this plan has been applied in their games together.

The spaces generated by having another star on his team have allowed Curry to uncork the bottle of essences and raise his percentages in recent weeks. In the following graph, we see a comparison of his accuracy in the last 12 games without Butler versus the 12 games he has played with Jimmy (almost 9 percentage points in field goals and 8.5 points in 3-pointers).

Emergence of Other Players

In these renewed Warriors, Curry and Butler are not the only ones contributing to the victories. Several players in the rotation have stepped up to help the team in its recent improvement. A clear case is that of Quinten Post, a rookie center who started the year in the development league and has been gaining weight in the rotation as the season progressed. His good hand from the three-point line (41%), along with his 7 feet, much needed in the shortest team in the competition, are making him start as a starter in recent games. In the following shooting chart, we see the versatility he brings compared to his teammate Jackson-Davis, who had more prominence in the first half of the campaign.

Another who is responding in this streak is Moses Moody. The fourth-year shooting guard, who renewed this summer with the Bay team, has increased his performance since, coinciding with the arrival of Jimmy Butler, he has moved to the starting lineup. His defensive intensity and accuracy from the three-point line have helped to take advantage of the spaces generated by Curry and Butler and make up for the absence of his draft classmate Jonathan Kuminga, who has been on the sidelines since January 4.

The Congolese, whom we will see back on the court very soon, is a profile that uses his physical superiority to find the way to the rim. With his return, Steve Kerr will have to adjust his rotation, but in exchange, he will have a player who was averaging more than 20 points in his last 15 games.

What Now?

The Warriors are currently in sixth position in a more competitive than ever Western Conference. Even with their recent good performance, they are in the last position that gives direct access to the playoffs, so they will have to maintain this good dynamic if they want to avoid the play-in problems.

Jimmy Butler has been the spark that the Warriors needed to revive a season that seemed lost. Headed for the playoffs, his experience in those types of scenarios should give an extra boost to a team that just three years ago was lifting the championship title. It’s still early to think about the ring, but if the Californians continue like this, we wouldn’t be surprised to see them giving trouble in the Western Conference playoffs.